The Shift from Blitzkrieg to Attrition
When Russian forces first crossed the Ukrainian border in February 2022, the expectation in Moscow was a swift victory. However, the failure to take Kyiv marked a dramatic shift in strategy. Russia has since pivoted to a war of attrition, focusing on seizing territory in the Donbas and grinding down Ukraine's military capabilities through sheer mass and firepower.
Putin's Strategic Calculus
Vladimir Putin's current strategy relies on two main assumptions: that Western resolve will eventually fracture, and that Russia's ability to absorb economic pain exceeds the West's willingness to provide military aid. By mobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops and ramping up defense production, the Kremlin aims to outlast Ukraine's allies.
"The Kremlin views this not just as a territorial conflict, but as an existential struggle against NATO expansionism."
The Goals of Limited Mobilization
Russia's partial mobilization was not just about manpower; it was a signal. The goal is to freeze the conflict lines and force Ukraine into negotiations on Moscow's terms. Key objectives include:
- Consolidating Control: Securing full ownership of the Donbas regions.
- Economic Warfare: Using energy exports and inflation as leverage against Europe.
- Internal Stability: Framing the war as a defense of the motherland to prevent domestic unrest.
Why Time Matters
Historically, Russia has survived invasions by retreating and burning earth, waiting for "General Winter" and the enemy's overextension. Putin is betting on history repeating itself. The Kremlin believes that as the war drags on, fatigue will set in among Ukrainian troops and Western voters, eventually leading to a ceasefire that leaves Russia with significant territorial gains.
Ultimately, Putin's endgame is not necessarily total conquest, but the creation of a buffer zone and a neutered Ukraine that cannot join NATO. Whether this strategy succeeds depends entirely on the West's staying power.
